NWS Forecast Discussion
114
FXUS63 KMPX 142323
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerous heat wave continues this week. This is a long
duration and cumulative threat due to daily highs in the 90s,
heat indices approaching 100 degrees, and little relief
overnight.
- An Air Quality Alert has been issued for the the the northern
/eastern two thirds of Minnesota and most of Wisconsin through
late week due to an expected plume of heavy smoke moving
south along frontal boundary.
- No precipitation expected until Friday at the earliest, and
mainly for western Wisconsin with low chances at that.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Another afternoon with not a cloud in the sky across southern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Midday temperatures remain in
the upper 80s and will soon climb into the 90s for the 4th day
in a row (at MSP). To breach the top ten longest stretch for
highs in the 90s at MSP, we would need at least 9 days of highs
in the 90s. It is possible we see highs in the 90s through
Sunday, but uncertainty has been introduced with the addition of
smoke from wildfires into the equation. All things remain true
about ridge placement and the weak surface front to the north
contributing to heat and humidity through the end of the
workweek. This includes limited overnight relief and a
compounding heat stress. The addition of smoke will
complicate, likely limit, forecast high temperatures Wednesday
through Friday. An Air Quality Alert has been issued for all MPX
counties in Wisconsin and most counties north of the Minnesota
River Valley in Minnesota as a result of the incoming smoke.
The smoke will arrive behind a stationary front Wednesday
morning for most, quickly plummeting air quality as it does.
There is some uncertainty with how far south the boundary will
stall, but hi- res models depict a secondary southerly push on
Thursday. Combining the extended heat and humidity with
unhealthy air quality will only act to exacerbate health impacts
Wednesday through Friday this week. The ridge will keep any
chance for precipitation well away from the area. This means
that along with the heat will come a gradual exacerbation of
drought conditions, but no alarm bells are going off yet. One
relatively positive outcome from the smoke is that it will limit
highs for Friday, likely reducing the need for an expansion or
extension of heat headlines as we previously mentioned.
Regardless of if there is a headline out for a given county or
of what type, the hazards of and precautions for excessive heat
and air quality need to be recognized and accounted for. As
noted in the previous discussions, continue to practice Heat
Safety, but now accounting for air quality as well: Stay
hydrated, check on the elderly, immunocompromised, and those
without A/C, check the backseat of the car, and limit time
outdoors.
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...The arrival of the weekend will
signal the end of the most intense heat and a trend towards a
slightly cooler pattern by early next week. Forecast guidance
depicts lowering heights with the passage of an initial wave over
Lake Superior on Saturday. Despite the lowering heights, the
antecedent warm mid-level air mass will still yield highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s per the latest NBM (The caveat here is the
potential for a wildfire smoke scenario to linger longer than
currently forecast, which could end up lowering weekend high
temperatures a tad). A stronger secondary shortwave is progged to
track from south central Canada into the Great Lakes Sunday into
Monday and will bring notably cooler temperatures into the Upper
Midwest by the middle of next week (highs in the low to mid 80s).
The approach of the shortwave will also signal an increase in slight
chance to chance PoPs across eastern MN/western WI Sunday PM/Monday.
Still a long way to go, but conceptually the retreating ridge and
southern track of the shortwave would support the ~40-50 percent of
GEFS/EPS members that feature measurable precipitation (up to a few
tenths) during this timeframe. A classic large scale longwave ridge-
trough pattern sets up for second half of next week, with a ~590s dm
ridge over the Four Corners region/south central CONUS and deeper
troughing over the Great Lakes. Initially, this pattern places
northwesterly flow across the Upper Midwest and guidance tends to be
on the drier side. Eventually flattening of the upper-flow around
the ridge may bring a more active track across the Plains, but
confidence in long range forecast evolution is low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
The main component of the TAF will be the introduction to
lowering visibility and impacts due to wildfire smoke arriving
from north to south after 12z. Due to confidence, kept the
lowest visibility to 6sm for now, however some sites might get
lower, mainly AXN/STC. Winds will be relatively light and
variable throughout, allowing the smoke to linger towards the
end of the period.
KMSP...High resolution guidance keeps the worst of the smoke
north of Hennepin County, making it as far south as
Anoka/Washington counties. We will need to monitor this trend in
future TAFs to see how low visiblity may get.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR vis w/FU. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind N 10-15kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Anoka-Benton-
Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-
Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-
Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-
Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-
Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-
Yellow Medicine.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Faribault-Freeborn-
Martin-Steele-Waseca.
WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Barron-
Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PV/Strus
AVIATION...TDH
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion