NWS Forecast Discussion
663 FXUS63 KMPX 140439 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1039 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwesterly winds continue to gust around 30 to 40 mph this evening behind a cold front, along with rapidly falling temperatures tonight - Periods of light snow Thursday through Friday with total accumulations around 2-4" expected, highest amounts across western Wisconsin. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 We started the day off with sunny skies and temperatures soaring into the 40s and upper 30s. Much of our warming slowed down by noon as a low level cloud deck spread south across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Temperatures will plummet into the single digits and teens overnight as strong cold air advection continues today. Northwest winds have been gusting around 30 to 40 mph across southwestern Minnesota, and around 20 to 30 mph further north and east. Winds weaken, but remain gusty through around sunrise tomorrow. The strong winds will result in feels like temperatures bottoming out around or a few degrees below zero in the morning. Clouds clear out for much of tomorrow, allowing some rebound in temps, though it`ll be hard to climb out of the teens. Guidance remains in agreement for the development of an anomalously strong upper level low over the Great Lakes. Several kinks within the main flow will provide multiple chances for light to moderate snow Thursday afternoon through early Saturday morning. There may be lulls at times, but after all is said and done, around 1 to 4 inches of snowfall can expected with the highest amounts across eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. There are two time periods to watch for elevated impacts from this system... 1) The Thursday morning commute could be difficult with the onset of snow arriving Thursday afternoon and continuing into the evening. For this first wave, forecast soundings show a double layer in the DGZ, though both are relatively shallow. Winds will also be strong just above the surface which could limit snowfall ratios. With both of these in mind, we expect ratios to be around 13-16:1, producing a quick 1 to 3 inches of snow for areas along and east of I-35. 2) Light snow continues into Friday, though confidence is low on how widespread. For areas that see falling snow, the combination of very strong northwesterly winds could lead to blowing snow concerns. Thus, another day of impacted travel is possible with significantly reduced visibilities. One positive is that the snow pack is virtually 2 inches or less across western and central Minnesota where blowing snow tends to be the worst. Areas north of St Cloud and Alexandria may be more susceptible with around 6 inches of snow depth, though likely very crusted over with ice at the moment. Winter Weather Advisories are possible for either a combination or individual impacts from these two scenarios as confidence increases over the next 24 hours. We remain cold for the weekend and early part of next week, with highs in the teens or single digits each day. The coldest periods will be Sunday and Tuesday morning with air temps dropping a few degrees below zero. Winds will generally remain elevated, especially this weekend. There is a low chance for light snow Sunday, otherwise drier conditions are expected heading into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1029 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Main change to this TAF period was to add TEMPOs at MSP, RNH, and EAU for MVFR cigs for a few hours after 06Z tonight. MVFR stratus is currently over northeastern MN and should push down into eastern MN and WI overnight. Skies will quickly break apart within a few hours of sunrise Wednesday morning, resulting in VFR conditions the remainder of the period. North-northwesterly winds will continue to remain breezy and gust to 25-30 knots through tonight. Winds will gradually slow throughout Wednesday, eventually falling to 5 knots or variable Wednesday evening. KMSP...Added TEMPO from 06-09Z tonight for periods of MVFR cigs (near 2000 feet). Skies should clear by mid-morning but broken high-level clouds look to return early Thursday morning. North- northwesterly winds will gust to near 30 knots tonight but slow throughout Wednesday, falling below 5 knots Wednesday night. Winds turn southwesterly early Thursday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR/-SN likely, chance IFR/LIFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR/-SN likely, chance IFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SAT...VFR w/ chc MVFR and -SN. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...CTG
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion