NWS Forecast Discussion
385 FXUS63 KMPX 132321 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 621 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet today and tonight, isolated showers possible in southwestern MN Tuesday morning. - Scattered showers in southern MN Tuesday evening, with on & off chances throughout the rest of the week. - Temperatures remain seasonable in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 40s this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 There is little more we could ask for on a Monday in October with mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures generally in the 50s with a few low 60s out there through 2pm. A broad cold front is moving through eastern WI with a broad area of cloud cover off to the east, with a lobe of high pressure dominating the local weather through the rest of today keeping us relatively clear. Cloud cover will begin to increase out of the southwest this evening and overnight as low level warm air advection increases to the south of the center of high pressure over northern Minnesota, with isolated showers possible after midnight through sunrise southwest of the Minnesota River. Forecast soundings from the RAP/HRRR are relatively dry in the lower levels and saturated just above the WAA layer such that much of this may end up as virga until the lower levels saturate, which is not expected to happen until the evening tomorrow per forecast soundings. There is solid agreement among the suite of CAMs and global models regarding scattered to widespread showers forming Tuesday evening and continuing into Wednesday due to not only the low level WAA but also some mid level shortwave energy passing through what is otherwise zonal flow south of the surface high pressure. Rain chances will be highest away from the strongest subsidence present over northern Minnesota, thus southern MN has overall higher chances than the central part of the state. Rain amounts will vary quite a bit due to the showery nature of the precipitation, with the highest amounts possible between 0.25-0.5 inches but most likely ranging near 0.1 to 0.2". The surface high pressure moves off over the Great Lakes midweek with a surface low pressure system developing ahead of a trough over the central Rockies pushing northwards along upper level southerly flow, with decent model agreement keeping the primary low pressure center to the west of Minnesota by Thursday pushing northwards towards the ND/MN/Canadian border by Friday morning. This sets up another zone of WAA east of the cold front and south of the warm front, however due to how rapidly the system moves northwards this activity will likely be more isolated than a typical frontal zone with the main symptom being highs reaching near 70 on Thursday and Friday and a low in the upper 50s to near 60 Friday morning. The global deterministic models and ensemble guidance show showery rain chances through much of Thursday into Friday with the upper level low occluding late Friday into Saturday leaving us with only wrap- around drizzle type showers into Saturday. The upper level occlusion and surface low then get pushed out of the area by a return to zonal upper level flow by the end of the weekend and into early next week with quieter weather returning alongside seasonal temperatures. Overall, we will have a few rounds of showers throughout the week but are not expecting significant impacts due to thunderstorms with winds a bit stronger as the system is moving through Thursday into Friday but nothing significant enough to cause major issues (less than 25mph). The trend of a slightly wetter pattern is welcome as we were dry for a significant portion of September and need to take advantage of any moisture we can get before we start to freeze overnight more frequently later in the Fall season. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Clouds will thicken and lower tonight, but remain VFR. A few showers could develop Tuesday morning, but dry air in the low levels would lead to very little or no impact. Lower levels saturate later in the day and cigs will drop as more widespread showers develop. MVFR vis and even some IFR cigs will be possible, especially Tuesday evening. KMSP...No concerns tonight. There is a low chance of a few showers in the vicinity Tuesday morning, but chances increase Tuesday late afternoon and evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. FRI...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...Borghoff
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion