NWS Forecast Discussion
705 FXUS63 KMPX 091110 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 610 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler this weekend with frost/freeze chances Sunday and Monday mornings before warming next week. - After this morning`s rain the next chance for rain arrives late Monday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 Rain will continue to slowly advance across the Upper Midwest this morning driven by broad ascent along a jet streak and frontal passage. The regions with rainfall have been seeing a notable increase in dew points into the 40s. This is significant versus the values down near 30 in southern Minnesota. This gap in dew point is part of why QPF values drop off quickly to the south as this drier air will limit rain chances. The other impact of these dew points will be for fire weather this afternoon and evening. Higher dew points and rainfall will help to reduce fire weather risk, keeping the risk lower than it was yesterday. However clearing skies behind the frontal passage will allow for ample mixing again today and the sun will also allow for dropping dew points. This mean another gusty and dry day is expected today. Therefore yet another bad day for burning. The other side of the frontal passage will be a period of cold air advection. This will bring temperatures down Saturday night through Monday morning. Both mornings will see frost and freeze potential with most ensemble guidance and therefore the NBM favoring Monday morning for the more widespread freeze chance. With the main area of high pressure moving overhead on Sunday night into Monday morning the clear skies will favor radiational cooling. Morning temperatures will be more typical of early March than early May. Early in the week a shortwave trough will move from the Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes. This will provide a broad source of lift for our next, more widespread, rain chance late Monday into Tuesday. There is a high chance for rain with this system with >98% of global ensemble members having measurable QPF north of I-94 and east of I-35. To the west of this region starts to drop but stays >75% of membership with QPF. Where there remains spread though is in the amount of QPF, as probs drop by roughly half for 0.1" of QPF. There could be some instability for thunderstorms, therefore locally higher QPF, but forecast soundings do not show much and it is rather elevated. After Tuesday, the next chance for rain arrives Thursday along a push of WAA. Not as strong of synoptic forcing as Tuesday`s rain chance, so much lower probabilities in the ensembles. In additional to the rain chances this looks to be the start of a period of continued hotter air days with multiple days into the 80s possible late next week into the following weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 The last of the -SHRA will be moving south across the area, exiting MKT/RNH by 13z and EAU by 14z with dry conditions through the rest of the period. Low VFR CIGS will scatter out a few hours after the showers exit, becoming FEW250/SKC by 18z but perhaps seeing some FEW070 level fair weather cumulus from 20-00z. Forecast soundings then show a very dry profile with little cloud cover until 08-09z, at which time some redeveloping 7-8kft clouds are possible. Winds will begin the period below 10kts, increasing to 10-15kts with gusts from 20-23kts possible from roughly 17z through 01z before diminishing back below 10kts once again. Direction will remain 310-340 throughout the period. KMSP...With showers having already pushed south of the terminal by period start, went with a dry TAF with the main features being the 20-23kt gusts after 18z as well as some FEW070 through 00z. There is higher confidence in SCT/BKN070 after 08z as forecast soundings show consistent saturation at that level across various forecast guidance. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind NW 15-20G30 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...TDH
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion