NWS Forecast Discussion
166 FXUS63 KMPX 232000 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 300 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures through mid next week. - Mostly dry weather is forecast for Memorial Day weekend, but a few nuisance showers are possible Saturday afternoon. - Warming trend above normal likely after Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Rinse and repeat! Quiet weather day with light winds, highs in the 60s and an afternoon Cu field in the sky. The mid-level low shifts slightly east tonight, pivoting the greatest concern for frost potential more into Wisconsin. Mainly Rusk and the far eastern portions of Chippewa and Eau Claire counties have the best chance of dipping near freezing overnight. Tomorrow should be similar to today, outside of a chance for some of the diurnal Cu to become more agitated, potentially leading to a few showers during the afternoon across central MN. Based on sounding profiles, we expect much of the area to stay dry tomorrow, but there has been a recent uptick in some of the hi-res models, primarily the HRRR and RRFS. There`s a scenario where if you get enough low-level convergence along the boundary, we could be looking at scattered pop-up showers. You also have a couple hundred Joules of MUCAPE where it`s not out of the question to hear a rumble of thunder if you have a strong enough updraft. Overall, impacts should still be limited in this low chance scenario, it just might mean a quick 10-20 minute shower during the afternoon for a few folks. Persistence is the name of the game then through Memorial Day as we stay sandwiched between the eastern trough and western ridge. A passing shortwave trough is looking increasingly likely next Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to our next chance of more widespread precipitation. QPF will be no where near our recent rainfall event, but could be a healthy 0.1 to 0.2 inches for some spots. There is still a bit of uncertainty, but both the American and Euro ensembles have begun to lock onto that specific timeframe. The gradual warming trend will continue through the end of the week as the ridging builds east. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Diurnal CU should mostly dissipate after sunset but will redevelop Saturday morning. Some high clouds are also expected. Winds will remain light through the period. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Rusk. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...Borghoff
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion