NWS Forecast Discussion
862
FXUS63 KMPX 152221
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
521 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warm Thursday, with potential for critical fire
weather conditions across western MN on Thursday afternoon.
- A very strong cold front will push east through the area on
Friday. Thunderstorms will develop on the front near I-35 late
Friday afternoon. A few storms could be severe, mainly east of
I-35.
- Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers
Saturday. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Today through Thursday:
Early afternoon satellite imagery with surface obs showed mostly
sunny skies across the region, with light surface winds.
Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s across. Radar showed a
few elevated returns across southern Minnesota, and there is a
small chance (20 percent) for rain this afternoon and evening.
However, the majority of the rain and storms will stay well to
the south across I-90. On Thursday, expect another day of warm
temperatures as a low pressure system approaches from the west
and brings an increase in southerly winds. This will lead to low
humidity and breezy conditions across western Minnesota, so we
did issue a Fire Weather watch from 11am to 7pm.
Friday through Saturday:
Not much has changed from the previous discussion. A strong cold
front will move through the region on Friday. Ahead of the
front, expect temperatures in the 70s and southwest winds, along
with a chance for thunderstorms. A few of these storms should be
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The storms
should start as discrete cells, with hail as the primary threat,
and then quickly grow upscale into a line with wind becoming the
primary threat. The risk for tornadoes is a distant third. These
storms will develop around the lunch hour near I-35, and then
move eastward rather quickly into Wisconsin. Behind the front,
expect breezy northwest winds of 20 to 25 mph, and falling
temperatures.
As the overall system organizes, precipitation will wrap around
from the northwest, with rain changing over to snow. As of now,
this looks to be closer to the international border, but could
have some light rain with a few snow flakes on Saturday. Highs
on Saturday will only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Sunday through Tuesday:
Dry conditions expected Sunday through Tuesday. Sunday will
remain cool with surface high pressure overhead, and
temperatures near 50. On Monday the high will depart to the
east, and southerly winds will increase bringing warmer
temperatures with highs the 60s to near 70.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Maintained TEMPO from 09-13z Thursday for developing fog at EAU
with visibilities periodically dropping from MVFR to 1sm
(LIFR). Fog will burn off by mid-morning. Considered adding a
TEMPO at RNH for mist/fog Thursday morning but confidence is
currently too low. Otherwise, VFR is expected is expected the
entire period at the remainder of the terminals. Southerly winds
persist across western MN tonight and increase in speed for
Thursday afternoon. Gusts will near 25 knots for AXN and RWF
during the afternoon hours Thursday. Farther east,
light/variable winds will turn southerly during the morning and
increase in speed. Gusts will reach 20 knots in central and
eastern MN during the afternoon.
KMSP...Opted to not mention any possibility for fog Thursday
morning as it should remain east in WI. South-southeasterly
winds will gust to near 20 knots after mid-Thursday afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the afternoon. Wind SE
10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts.
SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Redwood-Stevens-Swift-
Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...CTG
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion