NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMPX 042059
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
259 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow/rain currently moving east over western Wisconsin.

- Another chance for rain, or possibly light snow, Thursday
  night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

A narrow (5 mile) band of heavy snow set up across southeastern
Minnesota through western Wisconsin  earlier this afternoon,
bringing brief reductions in visibility (down to a mile at
times) and light accumulations. Current radar and satellite
imagery shows the band has weakened and moved fully into
Wisconsin. Behind this system, cloud cover has diminished over
western Minnesota and that clearing will gradually make its way
eastward throughout the evening. Temperatures will drop into the
mid-low 20s tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds.

Higher pressure will move into the area, leading to a relatively
calm and dry week until a shortwave trough attempts to bring
another shot at precipitation Thursday night into Friday.
Night-time temperatures will be the aspect to watch for
determining whether we get primarily snow or rain. Guidance
continues to be varied, with the GEFS and Canadian producing
more solutions that favor higher QPF in the Upper Midwest, while
the Euro struggles to produce much more than a trace across its
runs. Overall, the bulk of precipitation should fall south and
east of Upper Mississippi Valley.

This weekend, highs will be in the mid-low 40s with limited
cloud cover and weakening winds. Temperatures will then look to
rebound with upper level ridging likely strengthening as we
head into next week, with another shot at pushing into the
60s/70s. This could potentially then set up our next look at
worthwhile precipitation mid-next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Mid level clouds have cleared out a bit across western
Minnesota, but further east, virga and some light rain/snow
continues. Our two Wisconsin sites have the highest chances for
precip to make it to the surface, but it looks to be fairly
light/scattered, so only opted for TEMPO at this time. VFR
conditions are expected to continue through the period, with
clouds clearing later this evening. Winds become more
north/northeast by tomorrow morning with another round of
mid/high clouds moving in.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR/MVFR. Chc of -RASN. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. Chc of -RASN. Wind NNE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Dye

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org