NWS Forecast Discussion
848 FXUS63 KMPX 291156 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 656 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms expected for the first half of this today. - Heat and humidity returns for the second half of the weekend into the start of September with low PoP chances throughout the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Current upper-level water vapor imagery showing troughing over New Brunswick, Canada departing northeast, while broad troughing enters the PacNorthwest. Saddled in between these two features is a riding pattern that extends from the Intermountain-West over to the Great Lakes region. Below this ridging pattern, a shortwave was located over the MN and Dakotas border that will progress to the east southeast today. Mid-level warm advection combined with an intensifying 40-50kt low level jet will aid in additional moisture transport into the northern plains. This has resulted in rainfall becoming more widespread since 1 AM this morning across much of western Minnesota and will continue east over the next several hours. A few rumbles of thunder could be common, especially across western MN where an axis of mixed layer instability between 500-1000 J/k exists. Much of this rainfall should be captured during the first half of today. Although most areas can expect the rainfall to wrap up by 10 AM this morning, western Wisconsin will lag closer to noon before most rain has passed on. Most areas have a favorable shot at picking up 0.25" of rainfall with localized areas receiving closer to 0.75". Once the rain clears, sky coverage will vary depending on location across MN/WI today. For those south and west of I-94 have a stronger shot at seeing partly cloudy skies whereas elsewhere can expect broken sunshine by this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will also reflect where sunshine is more prevalent, i.e southwest MN reaching the mid to upper 80s, eastern MN near 80, western WI, mid to low 70s. After today, the weather pattern becomes more consistent with zonal flow aloft, warmer temperatures, and daily rainfall chances. On Sunday, another subtle wave moves across central MN Sunday morning featuring a broad surface low that will bring another chance for showers and potentially a strong storm Sunday afternoon. Latest forecast guidance favor more of central MN track this time but given some inconsistencies on storm coverage, was reluctant to go astray from current NBM PoPs. Key takeaway here is that most areas are better suited to remain dry versus seeing rain. As for temps, Sunday and Monday will feel the most humid with dew points in the low 70s and highs in the upper-80s across southern MN. As the week continues, dew points will improve slightly but highs will stay in the 80s with lows in 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 652 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Rain will end across the region this morning as the showers move from west to east. The chance of thunder is very low, so did remove it from the TAFs. Could see some gusty south/southeast winds and MVFR clouds at times this morning, but then later today expect VFR conditions. Overnight, there is a chance for some patchy fog to develop if we`re able to clear out. For now, did not add any lower categories to the TAFs, but did mention fog at KRNH and KEAU. KMSP... Rain will end shortly after TAF issuance, but could have some gusty winds and MVFR ceilings at times this morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions, with winds becoming more easterly and decreasing overnight. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. SChc -TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW bcmg NW 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Chc PM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...JRB
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion