NWS Forecast Discussion
215 FXUS63 KMPX 221921 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 221 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will lead to some minor shower chances through this evening across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Gusty northwest winds are expected overnight with much colder temperatures for Wednesday. - Another more widespread chance of rain arrives Thursday with seasonable temperatures through the first half of the weekend. - Warmer temperatures return early next week with a pattern change on the horizon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 A strong cold front is making its way across Minnesota this afternoon with showers ongoing for the northern half of the state. The short term forecast question is how far south these showers will make it this evening. The parent low for this cold front is approaching James Bay, Ontario, so the best forcing for these showers lies north of the MPX CWA. Additionally, this morning`s sounding had plenty of dry air below 700mb while the one at International Falls had a PWAT approaching 1". A handful of CAMs still show some showers later this afternoon into this evening for central Minnesota down to about the Twin Cities and continuing into western Wisconsin. Those who are lucky enough to see some precip won`t see much of it, with QPF amounts of only a trace to a couple hundredths. Behind the front, gusty northwest winds are expected with gusts of 30 MPH possible through early Wednesday morning. This strong northwest flow will usher in some much more seasonable temperatures for late October compared to what we`ve enjoyed so far this week, with temperatures tomorrow morning expected to be in the mid 30s to low 40s. Highs tomorrow will be in the 50s to near 60 southwest under sunny skies. Our next and perhaps more promising chance of rain arrives Thursday ahead of another trough. A LLJ will increase through the afternoon, which should compensate for the fact that we will once again find ourselves between the two surface lows associated with this system. Left the NBM`s widespread PoPs of 50-70% with up to 0.25" for QPF as is for consistency, but still keeping in mind that like most of our rain chances over the past two months, they could diminish as the event gets closer (a wise forecaster once said "when in drought, leave it out"). Temperatures will rebound slightly in response to strong WAA associated with the aforementioned LLJ, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. With these warmer temperatures comes the increase of fire weather concerns across southern Minnesota. The timing of the precip may be late enough that this could be an issue for a few hours Thursday. Once the cold front swings through by early Friday, highs will settle back down into the 50s with lows dipping back into freezing territory to start the weekend. Looking ahead, temperatures will creep back up Sunday into early next week with another shot of strong WAA and a ridge building across the central CONUS. Things finally begin to look a little more interesting during the final days of October with ensembles continuing to highlight an uptick in QPF in response to a deep trough digging in across the western US. This more active pattern looks to continue as we head into the beginning of November. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Through this afternoon into the early evening, cigs should lower to at least low-end VFR (aside from our far southern terminals RWF and MKT) as a cold front approaches from the west. A few light showers could occur at STC, MSP, and RNH ahead of the front so have added PROB30s. During and for the few hours after the frontal passage, skies will become broken/overcast with AXN, STC, and RNH`s cigs falling to MVFR. Cigs should slowly lift from west to east after midnight, with skies eventually clearing late Wednesday morning. South-southwesterly winds ahead of the front will turn northwesterly following the front with sustained values of 10-15 knots this evening into the overnight. Gusts will reach 20-25 knots. Winds should slow to near 10 knots by Wednesday morning. KMSP...Added PROB30 from 22-00Z today to give mention of possible light showers. Conditions should remain VFR, however. Cigs will drop to near 4000 feet overnight before skies clear late Wednesday morning. Post cold front, northwesterly winds will be near 15 knots with gusts to near 25 knots this evening into tonight. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR, -SHRA/MVFR possible. Wind S 10-15G25kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW to SE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...CTG
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion