NWS Forecast Discussion
906 FXUS63 KMPX 012050 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 250 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An impressive warming trend will take place this week through next weekend. Highs in the 50s are likely by Tuesday with 60s possible Thursday and Sunday. - A 20-40 percent chance of rain/snow across southern Minnesota Monday night, then widespread rain likely Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 High pressure continues to build southeast into the Great Lakes region today. Winds are beginning to turn southerly this afternoon as the center of the high reaches Lake Huron. Aside from a band of clouds across southern Minnesota, it`s been a rather sunny day for most. The high will shift east to New England Monday and strengthening return flow will bring a warming trend through midweek. A low pressure system will track east across the central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley Monday night. Chances for rain and snow continue across much of the region, with the highest probabilities across southern MN. Temperatures in the boundary layer will be just on the warm side of freezing, so expecting mostly rain. Any snow that falls is not likely to accumulate. Another system could glance us to the southeast Tuesday night and early Wednesday, bringing the next very low chance of rain and snow to far southern MN. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 40s Monday, lower 50s Tuesday, and mid 50s Wednesday. The pattern undergoes a more interesting transformation mid to late week as a subtropical ridge builds and parks itself across the southeastern U.S. and a deep trough develops across the Rockies. Southwest flow will prevail across the central U.S. and several disturbances could eject northeast from the western trough. The first disturbance will eject northeast across the Plains Thursday night reaching the Upper Midwest Friday. Temperatures ahead of it will continue warming and many could experience the first 60 of the season Thursday. This first system could shear itself out a bit as the trough continues to dig into the southwest. It also doesn`t appear it will have good cold air to work with, so snow probs remain low. Widespread rain and mild temperatures should accompany the late week system. As that system moves out, mild Pacific air will remain in place and temperatures should rebound again next weekend. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s appear quite possible again next Sunday. There remains some potential for a larger system early next week, but a lot of spread remains and is tied to how the closed off upper low in northwestern Mexico gets picked up by another developing trough over the Rockies. That likely won`t be known for several more days, but it bears watching. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1149 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 VFR conditions continue through the period. The band of mid to high level clouds will move to southwest through the rest of today. No precip is expected. Easterly winds will veer SE`ly this evening from 7 to 12 kts. After clear skies overnight, clouds redevelop tomorrow morning around sunrise (~mid-VFR levels) as our next system approaches from the southwest. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON PM...MVFR late. Slight chc -RASN. Wind S 5-10 kts. TUE...MVFR. Wind VRB 5 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Dunleavy
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion