NWS Forecast Discussion
108 FXUS63 KMPX 132106 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 406 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool & mostly cloudy weather continues this week. Rain chances Thursday mainly across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. - Widespread freezing temperatures likely Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Quite the change from the record-breaking warmth over the weekend as much cooler Canadian air continues to settle over the Upper Midwest. A few rain showers have developed across western Minnesota where clearer skies lead to some surface instability in addition to the cold cyclonic flow aloft. These showers will continue into central & eastern Minnesota until sunset, & a rumble or two of thunder can`t be ruled out. The cooler temperatures continue through the rest of the week as continued northerly flow & mostly cloudy skies keep temperatures mainly in the 50s to low 60s. Our next chance for rain arrives Thursday as an upper-level low moves northeast out of the Rockies into the central Plains. Rain should spread into southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin during the morning and continue through the afternoon & evening. Most of the moisture with this system will remain south of the area across the mid-Mississippi valley along with the heaviest rainfall across Iowa & southern Minnesota. rainfall amounts will generally range around 0.25-0.50" across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin & around 0.1" or less farther north. A colder airmass moves into the region behind Thursdays system as a strong upper-level trough digs into the Great Lakes & cold Canadian high pressure moves over the Upper Midwest. Gusty northwest winds & highs only in the low to mid 50s are expected Friday before high pressure brings clearing skies & diminishing winds Friday night. This sets the stage for widespread freezing temperatures Saturday morning, with lows generally in the upper 20s to low 30s across much of central & southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. AI weather models continue to run several degrees colder than the traditional physical models & ensembles for Saturday morning, which adds confidence to the potential for a widespread freeze based on observed trends from last fall. The extent of the colder temperatures will depend on how quickly winds diminish Friday night, but this is increasingly looking like a growing season ending freeze for much of the area. The cold spell will be brief as upper-level ridging builds back into the Upper Midwest over the weekend. Temperatures rebound into the upper 50s to low 60s this weekend, followed by widespread 60s & potentially low 70s early next week. Dry weather looks to continue into next week with only a low chance at showers & thunderstorms depending on the timing of a frontal passage Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 MVFR stratus continues to reside across all TAF sites at initialization, though partial clearing per visible satellite imagery looks to be moving in from eastern SD into SW MN. That said, stratus is expected to return later this evening and remain across the area this evening through the overnight period, including returning to MVFR after ceilings to rise to VFR levels late this afternoon into this evening. MVFR stratus will then persist through sunrise Wednesday morning followed by partial clearing going into the afternoon hours. Winds will continue from the NW in the 5-10kt range through this evening then become light/variable overnight thru sunrise. KMSP...Ceilings will remain between 2-3 kft through late this afternoon, then are expected to barely rise over that level this evening into the early overnight hours before falling back to MVFR levels overnight through late Wednesday morning. It does not appear to be until Wednesday afternoon that skies will partially clear out to allow for VFR conditions to return. Winds will be straight down the 30s into this evening, then slowly veer to a N direction overnight through most of Wednesday. Speeds throughout will range 5-10kts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind lgt & vrbl bcmg NW 8-12 kts. FRI...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NW 15-20G25-30kts. SAT...VFR. Wind 10kts increasing to 15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...JPC
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion